I just read an article that the New York Knicks aren't even thinking of a "Plan B" if Lebron James, the most coveted free agent in the market since Kobe Bryant , decides not to change his work address to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks and their fans have invested (suffered) so much the past two seasons to settle for anything less than the King himself. But what are New York's chances compared to the other five cities (Cleveland, Chicago, Los Angeles, New Jersey and Miami) who are ready to make a very strong and convincing pitch for LBJ to sign with them? And what about the other big free agent names such as Wade, Bosh, Stoudemire, Boozer and Johnson to name a few that will possibly be shopping around for a new team to play for?
This is my attempt at predicting what will happen as soon as free agents are allowed to sign with their team of choice on July 8. (Free agents can start talking to teams on July 1 but can't officially sign till the 8th.) There are so many factors to consider so to help simply this process I will limit my analysis on who I consider to be the top 5 free agents this summer and what each team can offer them in terms of max contract, supporting cast and potential to win it all.
5. Dirk Nowitzki - He's opting out of his contract and testing the free agent waters but he's almost a lock to re-sign with Dallas since no one really wants to pay max money for a proven choker (refer to every playoff series and the 2005-06 NBA Finals for more details) except for Mark Cuban whose invested too much on Dirk to just let him walk away for nothing. Sure, Dirk puts up max contract numbers and does try his best, unlike some marquee superstars, to will his team to victory but his "almost" one dimensionality as a player (deadly scorer but at 7 feet he isn't a dominant rebounder or has the defensive skills to stop the opposing team's best player) is too much of a hurdle for just his will to compensate. He'll sign with Dallas and just hope he gets enough of the right pieces for the Mavs to make another run at winning the championship.
4. Amar'e Stoudemire - Amar'e has proven that he is an offensive force to be reckoned with but he also needs a PG that can deliver him the ball in the right spots on the court to be truly effective. He has flashes of brilliance on the defensive end but is too inconsistent to be called a defensive stopper. Teams are also very hesitant to invest a max contract on him due to his health history. The best scenario for Amar'e would be for Phoenix to give him the max contract he desires and then trade him for equal talent that can team up with Nash for one final (or two) run at the Larry O'Brien trophy. If I had to go out on a limb, I predict he won't be back in Phoenix and will either sign or be traded to the Knicks for David Lee which will reunite STAT with Mike D'Antoni. He will then be part of the Knicks' sales pitch to get Lebron to sign and play in New York.
3. Chris Bosh - He's a talented and very athletic big man that can score and play solid "help" defense. He has the ability to change the course of a game if he decides to do so and has shown flashes of this during his career. Is he a franchise player that will lead and carry a team to the promised land? I don't think so but he would definitely be a vital piece to a team's championship puzzle. He's stated that he won't be back in Toronto when the 2010-11 season starts so that narrows down his possible final destination points by one team. Houston is a possible employer but he's also stated his desire to play along side Lebron or Dwyane (or both) to make up one of the most formidable duos (trios - "The Big Three Version 2.0") in the modern game. I predict he'll sign with Miami to team up with Dwyane Wade. Wade is definitely a bigger superstar than Bosh but Dwyane's demeanor won't take too much of the spotlight away from Chris who still wants to be seen as a star player that makes a significant contribution to the success of his team.
2. Dwyane Wade - Even though he's a Chicago native, Dwyane has almost made it clear he plans to re-sign with Miami and Pat Riley who runs the "most loyal organization" in professional basketball. He's currently on a recruitment mission to get another top free agent to move to South Beach with the lure of championship glory right over the horizon. If there are any predictions to be made with Wade, it would be how quickly after July 8 he signs with the Heat and what top talent he attracts to play with him in the upcoming NBA season. There have been talks of Lebron and Bosh teaming up with Wade in Miami which would definitely make the Heat a very, very, VERY big favorite to win the championship as long as they can manage to play together and not let their egos (which is part of why they are so great) get in the way of the ultimate goal. There will need to be sacrifices made in terms of money as well which make this scenario highly unlikely. I predict Dwyane convinces Bosh to join him in Miami.
1. Lebron James - Let's face it, his free agency status and decision on what team he plans to play for next year is what makes this NBA off-season exciting. Wade would have added to the excitement but as stated earlier, all signs point to him re-signing with the Heat. So where will Lebron land? Barring a monumental trade, there are only 6 teams worth mentioning that can afford the King's services. So for the last part of this post, I'll break down the 6 teams from least likely to where I believe LBJ will end up spending the next 5 to 6 years of his career.
Least likely:
New Jersey Nets - Besides Jay-Z (a personal friend of James) and the Russian billionaire who is willing to pay what it takes (there are limitations regardless of how much cash you flaunt) to bring a championship to Brooklyn, I don't believe the Nets have a shot at signing Lebron. The Nets have a decent supporting cast in Brook Lopez, Devin Harris and recently drafted Derrick Favors but are they championship caliber teammates? Sure those guys did well on a team that won a whopping 12 games. I guess they can be best described as "unproven" and that isn't good enough for the King.
Los Angeles Clippers - They probably offer James the best starting line-up of the 6 teams vying for his talent and services. Baron Davis and Eric Gordon is as good as any backcourt duo in the NBA today and are somewhat better than what James had in Cleveland. Chris Kaman gives James an All Star center and Blake Griffin with all his untapped potential is back from injury and is 100% ready to prove that he deserved the no. 1 pick in last year's NBA draft. So why not move to Hollywood? Two reasons, the Clippers are so good at underachieving that they have made losing an art form and James' ego would never allow him to be overshadowed by anyone in the league, especially by a guy named Kobe Bryant who happens to live next door and who currently possesses that thing that James has yet to achieve to cement his greatness in NBA lore, a championship and a Finals MVP.
Possible but not likely:
Miami Heat - No income tax, Florida beaches, "the most loyal organization" in the NBA and a chance to play along side Dwyane Wade...what else could the King want? How about the spotlight...all the time? There wouldn't be enough shots to go around between James and Wade and though Wade's personality may be able to take a back seat to LBJ's ego, Wade has stated numerous times that the American Airlines Arena (where the Heat play their home games) is HIS house and I don't know anyone who would invite a guest over to HIS house and let that guest run and take over the place.
Most likely:
Cleveland Cavaliers - Sure he grew up in Ohio (he loves the fans and the fans love him), played all his high school and the first 7 years of his professional ball here, not to mention the Cavs can offer James the most money and contract length than any other team at a tune of $30 million more and a max 6 year term but Mike Brown is gone (though potentially replaced by a proven coach in Byron Scott), his supporting cast is getting old (the organization will need to show James that they are willing to put together a championship caliber team) and Cleveland doesn't compare to the rich basketball history (and marketability) of a New York or Chicago.
Which bring us to the final two:
The New York Knicks and Donnie Walsh have done everything in their power to get themselves in the best position to sign Lebron James. But this came at a price as they no longer have a solid roster of players that will convince Lebron that he is the missing piece to the franchise's championship puzzle. They do however have a player's coach in Mike D'Antoni who emphasizes a fast paced, high powered offense which is sure to generate loads of excitement and tons of exposure for the Lebron marketing machine. They also have enough salary cap space to sign another big name free agent to team up with Lebron which is, at the very least, intriguing since this was something he never really had in Cleveland. It will all probably come down to the last point and given the uncertainty, Lebron won't wait too long on someone else before he makes his own decision.
This leaves us with the Chicago Bulls who I believe will be the winner of the Lebron James sweepstakes. James is obviously a huge Michael Jordan fan who even tried getting the NBA to retire the # 23 in honor of arguably the greatest basketball player ever. (he's even changing his jersey numer from 23 to 6) So why wouldn't he want to play in Chicago and be seen as the franchise's savior and the second coming of his "Airness"? It wouldn't hurt his shoe's sales for sure. He would of course have to live up to the expectations that MJ set which are obviously high and nothing less than a championship or two would be acceptable. But the Bulls do have a solid roster of players in Derrick Rose (a potential NBA Hall of Famer), Joakim Noah (an All Star in the making ), Luol Deng (a versatile and highly skilled wing player), Taj Gibson (a solid second year man) and enough cap space to sign another big name free agent such as Joe Johnson which may prove to be enough talent to convince James that the Bulls have what it takes to make that leap from contender to champion next year.
